Iowa Republican Caucus Polling Shows Five Different Candidates Have Been in the Lead During Last Four Months

Rasmussen Reports, like other major polling companies, has done many polls of the Republican Iowa caucuses. According to the Rasmussen polls, five different Republican presidential candidates have enjoyed a lead in Iowa in the period August 4 to the present. At the August 4 poll, Michele Bachmann lead with 22%. In the August 31 poll, Rick Perry led with 29%. In the October 19, Herman Cain lead with 28%. In the November 15 poll, Newt Gingrich lead with 32%. And in the latest poll, from December 13, Mitt Romney leads with 23%.

However, even as of the December 13 poll, 50% of the respondents say they could easily change their mind. The caucus is January 3, 2012.

U.S. Senate Bill Introduced to Permit Ex-Felons to Vote in Federal Elections

On December 16, U.S. Senator Ben Cardin (D-Maryland) introduced a bill to provide that in federal elections, ex-felons can vote, no matter what state they live in. The bill does not have a number yet.

On January 5, 2011, U.S. House member John Conyers (D-Michigan) introduced the same idea, in HR 108. It has not made any headway this year.

Article One of the U.S. Constitution says that Congress may pass election laws for federal office. Most states permit ex-felons to register to vote, but sometimes they provide for difficult procedures for ex-felons to regain the right to register. And some states simply never permit ex-felons to register. The United States is the only nation that has such provisions. In most nations that have free elections, incarcerated felons may vote.

New York Times Misleads Readers About Ballot Access

This New York Times article, by Richard W. Stevenson, about Americans Elect, misleads its readers. It says that only 30 states permit a group to petition for ballot access in the odd year before the election. The New York Times is not the first important publication to make this mistake; the Boston Globe made a similar mistake a few weeks ago, in an article by Brian Mooney, who said that only 28 states permit odd-year petitioning. Reporters, even of the most prestigious publications, have been lazy, and when an Americans Elect spokesperson tells them something, they don’t check it independently.

The only states in which Americans Elect would not have been permitted to be petitioning (or doing other tasks to get on the ballot, such as getting registered voters) during 2011 are Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. Some of the odd year procedures require a stand-in presidential candidate, for groups that haven’t yet chosen their presidential candidate. Americans Elect would rather not use stand-ins now, although they will start using stand-ins in January 2012.

Also, a few of the procedures permitted during odd years are so difficult, even Americans Elect isn’t trying them. For example, even Americans Elect with all its financial resources did not attempt to qualify itself as a party in Massachusetts, because that requires approximately 40,000 voters as members of Americans Elect. Also Americans Elect did not attempt the Minnesota party petition, which requires 105,352 signatures (5% of the 2010 vote cast). The Minnesota procedure has existed in the law since 1913 and has never been used.

Two states that formerly did not permit petitioning in odd years, Rhode Island and Arkansas, had their laws declared unconstitutional. Petitioning to create a new ballot-qualified party is First Amendment activity, and rationally people may wish to form a new party, and get it recognized, at any time, odd year or even year.

Texas Primary to be April 3; Petition Deadline for New Parties Moves from May 20 to June 17

On December 16, the Texas Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, agreed with each other that they will hold the Texas primary on April 3, not March 6. See this story. In Texas, parties, not government, administer the primaries. The government then reimburses the parties for the election administration costs.

This means the petition deadline for new or previously unqualified parties will be June 17, not May 20. Therefore, 2012 will be the first presidential election since 1984 in which every state has some means for a presidential candidate running outside the two major parties to get on the ballot, later than June 3. Colorado now has the earliest deadline, June 4.

UPDATE: the 3-judge U.S. District Court in San Antonio has now issued an order, confirming the April 3 primary date. The order takes cognizance of parties that nominate by convention as well. Candidates who want to be nominated by a party that nominates by convention must file with their own party officers by February 1, 2012. Parties that nominate by convention must forward these lists to elections officials by February 2. If any person files a declaration of candidacy for a minor party convention nomination, the minor party is then free to nominate anyone for that same office. But if no person filed a declaration of candidacy by the February 1 deadline, then that convention can’t nominate anyone for that same office. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link to the order.