A Fox News Poll released several days ago for the Colorado gubernatorial election shows these results: Hickenlooper, Democrat, 44%; Tancredo, Constitution, 34%; Maes, Republican, 15%; others and undecided 7%. The share of the vote for the Republican nominee, Dan Maes, has been dropping with each new poll. If he polls less than 10%, the Republican Party will no longer be a qualified major party and will no longer have a random chance of obtaining the top line on the ballot. Thanks to Cody Quirk for the link to this news story about the poll.
As soon as the November 2, 2010 election has been held, the Democratic Party of Washington state, and the Republican Party of Washington state, will no longer be ballot-qualified. This is because the law defines a ballot-qualified party as one that polled 5% of the vote for any statewide race at the last election, for any of its nominees. But under the state’s top-two system, which went into effect in 2008, parties won’t have nominees, except for President.
The two major parties in Washington each got over 5% of the vote for President in 2008, so their status as qualified parties was not upset by the 2008 election. But Washington state has a U.S. Senate race this year, and as soon as it occurs, that race will be the controlling race to determine qualified status for 2012. At that point, Washington will have no qualified parties.
The Washington state election code does not use the term “qualified party”; the election law term is “major party”, but the language is not consequential. Only major parties are automatically on the ballot. Therefore, if the law is not changed, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party will not even be on the November 2012 ballot for president, unless they each submit a petition of 1,000 names. The petition is due in late July, before either major party will have held its 2012 national convention. But a 1994 ruling of the Washington Secretary of State says parties may use stand-in presidential candidates on petitions.
Of course, it is very likely that the 2011 session of the legislature will change the definition of “party”. During 2009 and 2010, the Secretary of State tried to persuade the legislature to amend the definition of qualified party to a group that had polled at least 1% for President at the last presidential election. That bill, SB 5681, did not pass.
At the September 14 Massachusetts primary, no Republican appeared on that party’s primary ballot for Attorney General. However, write-in candidate James McKenna polled 27,711 write-ins. He needed 10,000 write-ins to be deemed nominated, and he easily overcame that hurdle. He had printed and distributed 100,000 stickers. Massachusetts is probably the last state in which stickers are still legal. A voter pastes the gummed strip bearing McKenna’s name on the ballot, instead of having to write him in.
McKenna also sent out 17,300 pieces of direct mail. It is estimated that his write-in campaign cost $40,000. Massachusetts has approximately 480,000 registered Republicans. Registered independents, who are far more numerous, were also free to choose a Republican primary ballot and cast a write-in for McKenna.
McKenna would have needed 10,000 signatures of registered Republicans and/or registered independents to get himself on the primary ballot. It is not known why he didn’t qualify to have his named printed on the primary ballot.
The October 3 edition of the Indianapolis Star has this editorial, advocating several election law reforms, including ballot access reform. The editorial is good, but it omits a lot of relevant information. Indiana is one of only four states in which Ralph Nader never appeared on the ballot, even though he placed third in the presidential elections of 2000, 2004, and 2008. The editorial should have mentioned that. Other important minor party and independent presidential candidates who have been omitted from Indiana’s ballot include John G. Schmitz in 1972, Eugene McCarthy in 1976, and Ron Paul in 1988. Parties that never qualified a statewide candidate in Indiana include the Natural Law Party, the Green Party, and the Constitution Party.
Indiana is the only state with difficult ballot access in which there never seems to be any activism to change the laws. One problem is that Indiana legislative rules require bills to be introduced in December of the year before the session starts. Now is the time for anyone who lives in Indiana, and who wants to do something about the ballot access problem, to be seeking legislators to sponsor bills in 2011. Thanks to Mark Rutherford and also Jay Parks for the link.
Thomas L. Friedman has this column in the October 3 New York Times, making the case that the United States needs a new major political party. Friedman is a renowned author, reporter, and columnist, a recipient of three Pulitizer Prizes, and the author of five bestselling books.
One hopes that Friedman will get interested in the details of legal barriers to the creation of a major new political party. He probably lives in New York state. New York state law is so bad, New York is one of only two states in which it is literally impossible for a group to transform itself into a qualified party during a presidential election year. These sort of details are not widely known, but if someone with Friedman’s stature would publicize such details, that would enhance the chances for improvement.