Crist to be Listed Last in a List of Nine Candidates

Charlie Crist will be listed ninth (i.e, last) on the November 2008 ballot for the U.S. Senate race in Florida. See this CNN story. Florida lists the nominee of the party that won the governorship first. It lists any other party that has registration of 5% of the voters next. It lists the nominees of other parties next. Finally, at the bottom, are the independent candidates, listed in the order in which they filed. Besides Crist, four other independent candidates filed.

Of course, Crist or any other candidate is free to sue over the ballot order. In 2007 the New Hampshire Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the all candidates must have an equal opportunity for the first line on the ballot. Other courts that have made similar decisions are the California Supreme Court, and the 8th circuit, and U.S. District Court decisions in Oklahoma and New Mexico.

Three Tea Party Candidates File for U.S. House in Florida

The Tea Party is a ballot-qualified party in Florida. Three candidates filed in the Florida Tea Party’s primary for U.S. House.

In the 8th district, which includes much of Orlando, the Tea Party candidate is Peg Dunmire. The 8th district is a swing district which elected a Republican in 2006 but a Democrat, Alan Grayson, in 2008.

In the 12th district, centered on Polk County in interior Florida, the Tea Party candidate is Randy Wilkinson. This is a safe Republican district.

In the 25th district, which includes the southwestern corner of the state as well as western Dade County, the Tea Party candidate is Roly Arrojo. The Republican incumbent, Mario Diaz-Balart, won in 2008 by a fairly close margin, 130,891 to 115,820 for the Democratic nominee, Joe Garcia. Thanks to Darcy Richardson for this news.

Center for Governmental Studies Issues Neutral Report on Prop. 14

The Center for Government Studies has issued this 102-page report on California’s Proposition 14, the “top-two” ballot measure on the June 8, 2010 ballot. The study, by Molly Milligan, studies whether Proposition 14 would create more moderate California politicians. The study suggests that the measure would tend to create more moderates in the State Senate.

The study also finds that campaign spending would increase, because many candidates who now have a completely safe primary process would need to spend enough money to win twice before the entire electorate. The study also says, on page 17, in footnote 11, that in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election of January 2010, if Massachusetts had used top-two, Scott Brown would not have qualified for the second round. In the real world, Brown won the election.

Finally, the study concludes that there would be a good share of legislative races, and some U.S. House races, in which the November election would be between two Democrats. However, the study does not believe there would be November elections between two Republicans.

The study does not mention that Proposition 14 makes it more difficult for ballot-qualified minor parties to remain ballot-qualified. It makes passing references to the aspects of the measure that eliminate write-in voting, and that make it very unlikely that any minor party or independent candidate would qualify for the November ballot, except in instances at which only one major party member is running. The study does not mention the adverse impact that Proposition 14, if passed, would have on Proposition 15, the public funding measure. Finally, the study does not mention the problem of no party labels for candidates who are members of unqualified parties.