Louisiana Elections for U.S. House Support Conclusion That "Top-Two" Unduly Benefits Incumbents

Critics of “top-two” sometimes argue that “top-two” is even more favorable to incumbent office-holders than normal elections are. A look at Louisiana’s U.S. House elections, 1978 through 2006, tends to confirm this criticism. Louisiana held 120 regularly-scheduled U.S. House elections in that period, the period in which Louisiana used “top-two” for Congressional elections. Special elections are excluded from this study, since virtually by definition, there is no incumbent in a special election.

Out of those 120 U.S. House elections, an incumbent was defeated only three times. And in two of those three instances, it was impossible for an incumbent not to lose, because one incumbent was running against another incumbent, due to redistricting.

But, when Louisiana abandoned “top-two” in Congressional elections starting in 2008, and used ordinary elections in which each party chose its own nominee in closed or semi-closed primaries, two incumbents were defeated in the general election, out of seven races. The two incumbents who were defeated in the general election of 2008 were William Jefferson, a Democrat from New Orleans, and Don Cazayoux, a Democrat from Baton Rouge. Both of the 2008 elections in which the incumbent lost were multi-party races, in which the winner was elected with a plurality, but not a majority.

During the years Louisiana used “top-two” for Congressional elections, the only incumbent who lost and who wasn’t running against another incumbent was Claude Leach in 1980. The two incumbents who lost to other incumbents were Jerry Huckaby and Clyde Holloway, both of whom were defeated in 1992, after Louisiana lost one seat in the House due to the 1990 census.

Louisiana Elections for U.S. House Support Conclusion That “Top-Two” Unduly Benefits Incumbents

Critics of “top-two” sometimes argue that “top-two” is even more favorable to incumbent office-holders than normal elections are. A look at Louisiana’s U.S. House elections, 1978 through 2006, tends to confirm this criticism. Louisiana held 120 regularly-scheduled U.S. House elections in that period, the period in which Louisiana used “top-two” for Congressional elections. Special elections are excluded from this study, since virtually by definition, there is no incumbent in a special election.

Out of those 120 U.S. House elections, an incumbent was defeated only three times. And in two of those three instances, it was impossible for an incumbent not to lose, because one incumbent was running against another incumbent, due to redistricting.

But, when Louisiana abandoned “top-two” in Congressional elections starting in 2008, and used ordinary elections in which each party chose its own nominee in closed or semi-closed primaries, two incumbents were defeated in the general election, out of seven races. The two incumbents who were defeated in the general election of 2008 were William Jefferson, a Democrat from New Orleans, and Don Cazayoux, a Democrat from Baton Rouge. Both of the 2008 elections in which the incumbent lost were multi-party races, in which the winner was elected with a plurality, but not a majority.

During the years Louisiana used “top-two” for Congressional elections, the only incumbent who lost and who wasn’t running against another incumbent was Claude Leach in 1980. The two incumbents who lost to other incumbents were Jerry Huckaby and Clyde Holloway, both of whom were defeated in 1992, after Louisiana lost one seat in the House due to the 1990 census.

Conservative Party of Great Britain May Be Losing Its Interest in Primaries

European political parties have traditionally chosen their nominees in party meetings, but in 2009, the British Conservative Party has been experimenting with using primaries to choose nominees. The party does this by mailing a ballot, at its own expense, to all the voters of the constituency or the city that is holding the election. This British blog on politics suggests that the Conservative primary to choose a Mayoral candidate in Bedford was not considered a success, and that perhaps the party may discard the idea.

Washington State Privacy Proponents Will Appeal to Entire 9th Circuit

On October 15, the forces who placed a Referendum petition on the Washington state ballot announced that they are asking the full 9th circuit to rehear Doe v Reed. The issue is whether the names and addresses of people who sign petitions should be released to the public. Earlier in the day on October 15, a 3-judge panel of the 9th circuit had given the Secretary of State permission to release the names. Any decision of a 3-judge panel of any U.S. Court of Appeals may be appealed to all the full-time judges of any Circuit. At that point, all the full-time judges vote on whether to rehear the case. See this story.