In most states, minor parties running for statewide office in 2006 need to poll a certain share of the vote in order to qualify automatically in 2008. Often it is easy to predict if a party will poll enough votes to remain on the ballot. This year, there are seven states that are tough to predict, and it is especially tough to predict how the Green Party will do.
Arkansas: will the Green Party poll 3% for Governor? The Governor’s race is a 4-way race between a Democrat, Republican, Green and independent. Polls have not generally included all 4 candidates.
Illinois: will the Green Party poll 5% for Governor? Polls have shown that it will, although the most recent poll showed the Green down to 7%.
Maryland: will the Green Party poll 1% for Governor? Maryland gubernatorial polls have not included all 4 candidates (nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Green and Populist Parties). Although the Maryland Green Party’s candidate for U.S. Senate has campaigned harder, only the gubernatorial race counts for ongoing status.
Minnesota: will the Green Party poll 5% for any statewide race? Greens are entered in four statewide races (US Senate, Governor-Lt. Gov, Auditor, Attorney General). Since the Independence Party also has nominees in each of those races, Greens face an uphill battle to recapture qualified status. In 2002, Greens contested 4 of the statewide offices but their best showing was 3.67%.
Nebraska: Greens have two statewide nominees, Secretary of State and Auditor, but both races have both a Democrat and a Republican running as well, so it’s tough to predict whether either Green will get the needed 5%. By contrast, the Constitution Party has a nominee in the 2-candidate Treasurer’s race, so the Constitution Party is sure to remain qualified.
New Mexico: will the Green nominee for Public Regulation Commission poll a vote total that is equal to 5% of the entire vote cast for Governor in the state? The Green is in a two-person race and has been campaigning hard; but since the state is divided into five Public Regulation districts, and since many voters will skip voting in this race, the Green probably needs 30% to 35% of the total vote cast, to meet the statewide 5% standard. Also the law isn’t clear on whether this race counts; a federal court a few months ago said it does, but a lower state court in 2004 said it doesn’t.
New York: will the Green Party poll 50,000 votes for Governor to regain its qualified status (which was also won in 1998 but lost in 2002)?
If the Green Party is lucky in all seven states, it will be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 (as of November 8, 2006) in 25 states, the same number it had immediately after the November 2000 election.
The Libertarian Party, as of November 8, 2006, is likely to be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 in 24 states, with an outside chance for two more, if it can get 5% for U.S. Senate in Washington, and 50,000 for New York Governor.
The Constitution Party, as of November 8, 2006, is likely to be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 in ten states, and the Working Families Party in five states.
