Only 5 States Currently Rated as “Toss Up” States in Projected 2024 Electoral Vote One Year Before Election Day

Posted on by November 7, 2023
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On Monday, November 6, 270towin.com produced this map of projected 2024 Electoral College votes, which is a composite of forecasts from several reputable sources.

This projection estimates that the 2024 presidential election will be close and that there are only five “toss up” states (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia).

The United States is now the world’s only democracy that elects its President through an indirect voting method, such as the Electoral College, and some of the ill effects of this system can be seen through this map.

Thanks to Taegan Goddard and Political Wire for bringing this to my attention.

 

New California Registration Data

Posted on by November 6, 2023
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On November 6, the California Secretary of State released a new registration tally, the first since February 2023. See it here.

Percentages are: Democratic 46.82%, Republican 23.90%; American Indepedent 3.74; Libertarian 1.10%; Peace & Freedom .59%; Green .46%; Common Sense .11%; No Labels .11%; independent and other, 23.16%.

One year ago, the percentages were: Democratic 46.87%; Republican 23.85%; American Independent 3.54%; Libertarian 1.05%; Peace & Freedom .56%; Green .44%; Common Sense .12%; independent and other 23.57%.

Among the parties trying to get on the ballot, No Labels has 25,141; Common Sense has 25,017; American Solidarity 455; Constitution has 234. A year ago No Labels hadn’t started, Common Sense had 25,715, American Solidarity had 352, Constitution had 156.

Connecticut Court Orders a New Democratic Primary for Mayor of Bridgeport, After Evidence of Bulk Absentee Ballots Stuffed Into Drop Boxes

Posted on by November 6, 2023
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On November 1, a Connecticut state trial judge ruled that the results of the September 12, 2023 Democratic primary for Mayor of Bridgeport should be set aside, and a new primary held. Connecticut city elections are partisan. The incumbent Mayor, Joe Ganim, won the September primary by 251 votes, but the challenger, John Gomes, won the primary if absentee ballots are set aside.

Video cameras showed that some individuals dropped dozens of absentee ballots into the city’s drop boxes for absentee ballots. Yet state law doesn’t permit anyone except the voter to deposit an absentee ballot into a drop box, with certain exceptions. For example, a disabled voter can choose a family member to deposit the ballot. See this story. The case is Gomes v Clemons, Superior Court, Bridgeport, Fbt-cv-23-6127336-5.

The general election will proceed on November 7. The primary will be held afterwards, on a date not yet set. Presumably if Mayor Ganim is elected on November 7, and if the primary held afterwards is also won by Ganim, then he will be considered re-elected. If the general election is won by Ganim, but Ganim loses the Democratic primary held afterwards, then a new general election will need to be held. Thanks to Tim Smith for this news.

Texas Files Fifth Circuit Brief in Defense of Its Ban on Electronic Signatures

Posted on by November 6, 2023
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On November 1, Texas filed this brief in the Fifth Circuit in Miller v Doe, 23-50537. This is the case that challenges many Texas ballot access laws. In the court below, the ban on electronic signatures for minor party and independent candidates was struck down. Texas wants the Fifth Circuit to reverse that decision. Here is the state’s brief.

The other side’s brief is due December 1, and it will attack many of the ballot access laws that the lower court had upheld.