Nate Silver Article Casts Doubt on Independent & Third Party Candidate Narratives

Posted on by October 4, 2023
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My fellow editor, the great Richard Winger, has previously documented the 1948 presidential election vote analysis that indicates that the presence in the race of Henry Wallace of the Progressive Party helped, rather than hurt, the candidacy of Harry S Truman.

In this analysis, Nate Silver casts doubt on the standard analyses of the voting effects of independent and third party candidates and predicts that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s presence in the 2024 presidential election will help, not hurt, President Biden.

Thanks to Political Wire for noticing this.

Eight Republican Members of the U.S. House Vote to Replace Speaker Kevin McCarthy

Posted on by October 3, 2023
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On October 3, the House voted to replace Speaker Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy lost his position because eight Republicans voted against him. The eight include seven who are from states that allow independents to vote in primaries.

Proponents of top-two, top-four, and top-five, are constantly repeating the mantra that primaries need “reform”, because closed primaries nominate “extremists”. But seven of the eight Republicans who voted against McCarthy are from states that allow independents to vote in primaries.

The seven who voted against McCarthy and who are from states in which independents can vote in primaries are: Andy Biggs (Arizona); Ken Buck (Colorado); Tim Burchett (Tennessee); Eli Crane (Arizona); Bob Good (Virginia); Nancy Mace (South Carolina); and Matt Ronsendale (Montana).

The one who voted against McCarthy, and who is from a state with closed primaries, is Matt Gaetz (Florida).