An NBC/WSJ Poll released on July 23 shows these results for president: Obama 48%, McCain 35%, Nader 5%, Barr 2%, other and undecided 10%.
When the pollster only mentions the two major party candidates to respondents, the results are: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, other and undecided 12%. See here for more details. Thanks to IndependentPoliticalReport for this link.
Oh, a REAL Poll? So much for BobBarr2008 at 8%!
There’s such a thing as a running average, like what RealClearPolitics does on a daily basis. Barr tops 6% in some national polls, as low as 2% in others. Which means the truth is somewheres in the middle: 3.5% to 4%.
Translation: 3 to 4 million votes.
That’s only 3 to 4 times the number that of the all-time high for the Libertarian Party – Ed Clark in 1980 with 920,000.
Funny, how some are attempting to manipulate the expectations game.
Don Lake you can bash and twist facts all you want to bash the Libertarian Party . The 8% was for Colorad only and you know this. I am going to ignore your posts since you are so hateful and everyone knows this.
As far as this poll is concerned it will be proven wrong election time. Ralph nader cannot be at 5% since he will not get many of the votes in which he is being polled at. For example he will not be in the North Carolina ballot although many people polled were from that state. Therefore his ultimate numbers will be much lower, probably finish at 1% . Barr, on the other hand, will only go up in the polls as more state ballots are approved especially if he gets on West Virginia. The sheer numbers of possible voters thrown into the pool will cause this to happen as well as he turns the campaign up a notch in August & September.
DON LAKE you are not a friend of Third Parties . I would not wish any of the Third Party candidates bad as you do just because you may not agree with something.
538 has an interesting article about how Obama seems to run better in polls where Nader and Barr are included in the sampling.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/reverse-nader-effect.html
Jonathan,
Is it really necessary for you to run down and bash Nader in order to promote Barr? You don’t see me bashing Barr, best of luck to him as far as I’m concerned, I hope to see a four-way debate in fact.
Nader is polling at 6% according to CNN, and 10% in Michigan. He will make 45 state ballots; North Carolina is less than 3% of the U.S. population and has the most regressive ballot access laws in the country — and hardly a stronghold for Nader in the first place.
Green Party’s Cynthia Mckinney should be included.
Yep, and so should the Constitution Party’s nominee Chuck Baldwin. I mean the Constitution Party is the nation’s largest 3rd party by the way.
I’m not bashing Nader at all. I voted twice for him.
I am the first to say one should vote Nader or Barr . What I am saying is that Nader will not end up with 5% of the vote. It would be extremely hard since he will not be on the ballot in 5 to 10 states which means millions upon millions of people that simply cannot vote for him even if they wished. The average American doesn’t bother with Write in candidates
Pollster.com has updated their 4-way chart to include yesterday’s WSJ/NBC poll as well as a poll by Fox that was released today (also linked on the Pollster chart).
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvoand3s.php
The good news is that more polls are routinely including Nader and Barr. The bad news is that the net effect of these last two polls is that Nader moves from 4.2 to 3.7 while Barr moves from 2.6 to 1.3. Both campaigns need a lot of help and support.
thats bad news PRO DEMOCRACY very discouraging if you are a Nader or Barr supporter. In my case I get depressed when I see Bob’s numbers . It’s all about money and we just don’t have the money.
CNN is interviewing McCain tomorrow and accepting video questions from viewers. I posted a question asking him if he will debate Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. Please go push up the rating of the video to help it make it onto the air.
http://www. ireport. com/docs/DOC-49879
Sorry, here’s a working link:
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-49879
Jonathan says: “As far as this poll is concerned it will be proven wrong election time. Ralph nader cannot be at 5% since he will not get many of the votes in which he is being polled at. For example he will not be in the North Carolina ballot although many people polled were from that state. Therefore his ultimate numbers will be much lower, probably finish at 1% . Barr, on the other hand, will only go up in the polls as more state ballots are approved especially if he gets on West Virginia. The sheer numbers of possible voters thrown into the pool will cause this to happen as well as he turns the campaign up a notch in August & September.”
and then says this:
“thats bad news PRO DEMOCRACY very discouraging if you are a Nader or Barr supporter. In my case I get depressed when I see Bob’s numbers . It’s all about money and we just don’t have the money.”
You do understand when you make these types of statements contradicting yourself you come off as a Drip.
The fact of the matter is Libertarians have bucks…..big bucks. What Barr’s money problems tell me is the rank and file has tuned you out. You can’t raise the money to fund a signature of a state with modest requirements. How do you expect to run a campaign ? If you want to see how desparate Barr’s fund raising situation is check this out : http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?id=N00002526&cycle2=2008&goButt2.x=13&goButt2.y=9
Check out the total on the bottom. Yeah that’s right 83 Thousand. Unless something happens quick Barr will be lucky to beat Cynthia McKinney.
Now take a look at Nader. Two weeks ago he stated he had raised nearly 1 Million Dollars. Last week he received 441,000 from the FEC in matching funds. And he is raising money on his website like a Banshee. In a 10 Day Period that concluded last Sunday he set a goal of $60,000 Dollars. By Midnight Sunday he had raise $69,000. He let the drive go another 24 hours and concluded at $75,000. Today Nader’s People commenced another online drive for $100,000 in 17 Days. This Saturday Night Nader will be having a House Party Network which will include a Nationwide Teleconference. You can bet that will raise a few bucks there. Plus he raises money at every campaign stop. As Nader qualifies for more and more state ballots more people who were skittish will jump in and contribute.
Pure and simple Nader resources in terms of both money and personnel towers over anything the other third parties possess. As time goes on the Barr and the Libertarians will fizzle while Nader gets stronger.
In my previous post
441,000 should read 411,000
Any election which does have all the Presidential candidates on the ballot in all states and territories is illegitimate. How many are too many candidates? How much turnout is too many voters?
The impact of these candidates is not in the national polls , but in the individual states where each has important popularity and will likely influence the outcome in that state and where it’s electoral votes go.
I’d like to see Barr and Nadar in the early debates at least – similar to the way there are numerous candidates in the primaries. It would only serve our national interest.