James Carville Predicts Strong Non-Major Party Presidential Candidate in 2012

James Carville, well-known Democratic political consultant, believes there will be a strong presidential contender in 2012 who runs outside of the two major parties. See this story. Thanks to Bill Van Allen for the link.


Comments

James Carville Predicts Strong Non-Major Party Presidential Candidate in 2012 — No Comments

  1. That’s exactly what the pundits predicted in 2008. But back then, there wasn’t Americans Elect or a general public outrage against both parties. I’m sure that 2012 will be one of the most interesting elections since 2000, to say the least.

  2. I’m curious. In 2012, why would Bloomberg not run?
    Why would Americans Elect not nominate him?

    Isn’t that Plan 1 for everyone involved?

    A real businessman without the usual Republican social issues anchor. Heck, he even has a few dollars to use in the race.

    I mean, after Bloomberg, who are #’s 2 through 10 on the same list? Do any viable alternatives really exist?

    Obama, Perry, Bloomberg
    Obama, Romney, Bloomberg

    A little hard to make Bloomberg’s religion a issue when he would be running against a Mormon.

  3. You’d think that in 2008 more people would have voted for Bob Barr, but most people probably held their nose and voted for McCain, even though many Republicans thought he was too liberal. A McCain vote was a vote against Obama.

  4. @3

    You are seriously think. We did have Americans Elect back in 2008. It was called Unity 08 and it went nowhere, just like Americans Elect will go nowhere.

  5. I’ve heard a lot of talk about a strong non-major party candidate with a chance to actually win the election. In fact, I have heard those comments in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2008. However, except for 1992, when voters get to the voting booth, over 95% of those who participate in the election vote for the major parties.
    In theory, things look promising for a third party/independent candidate. However, the last time a third party displaced one of the two major parties was in 1856-1860 when the GOP became a major party (getting 2nd place in 1856 and winning in 1860 with Lincoln).

  6. #8- How about 1912? The Progressive Party came in second ahead of the Republican Party. Perhaps you count TR as just another Republican candidate.

  7. I hope so! Because ol’Obama certainly isn’t getting the job done. If the Dems force us to only have Obama as a choice for President, they will be responsible for handing over the Presidency to some nutjob teabagger!

  8. @#7 The difference between AE and Unity08 is that AE has momentum and a TON of money. AE has already ballot-qualified in a few states and has gotten well over 1.5 million petition signatures. Unity08 never even got close to the point AE is at now. But, anything can happen, and it is rather early to be making these grandious predictions about 2012.

  9. The biggest difference between Unity08 and Americans Elect is that in 2008, the federal election law, as interpreted by the FEC, did not allow anyone to give more than $5,000 to Unity08. Unity08’s biggest impact was in winning its lawsuit which struck that down, but that didn’t happen until March 2, 2010, far too late to help Unity08. Unity08’s winning lawsuit paved the way for Americans Elect.

  10. #9 — You are right that Teddy Roosevelt did poll more votes than the Republican candidate (Pres. Taft) in 1912, but the Progressive Party generally did poorly at other levels (Congressional, State and local), with a few exceptions. In 1914 it lost most of its support (although still managed to win a few seats in the US House. By 1916 the Progressive Party had disappeared, especially when Teddy Roosevelt declined to run for President. The Progressive Party’s 1912 showing was solely based on Roosevelt’s strong character and popularity.
    That’s why I do not count it, plus I was talking about what I have seen in my lifetime.

  11. #13, in 1914 the Progressive Party elected the Governor of California. Hiram Johnson defeated his Republican, Democratic, Socialist and Prohibition Party opponents easily. He got 50% in a 5-candidate race.

    And even in 1916, the Progressive Party re-elected one of its congressmen, in Louisiana.

  12. “Thatโ€™s why I do not count it, plus I was talking about what I have seen in my lifetime.”

    You must be pretty old to remember 1856 and 1860! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  13. Richard, I stand corrected.

    #15 — ๐Ÿ™‚ I’m only 175 years old ๐Ÿ™‚

  14. # 5 RJ Says: August 10th, 2011:
    “Youโ€™d think that in 2008 more people would have voted for Bob Barr,”

    [Lake: huh ???????? and on what planet ??????]

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