Political Scientist Lee Drutman here presents the evidence that “moderates” and “independents” are not the same group of people. The research is at FiveThirtyEight.com. Drutman is writing a book, not yet published, about the crisis of the two-party system in the United States. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.
On September 21, the Arizona Democratic State Committee rejected a motion to invite independents to vote in the party’s 2020 presidential primary. See this story.
Democrats appear naive about the costs of the lawsuit that would have been required, if the party had chosen to go ahead and let independents to vote in their presidential primary. Some Democrats felt it would cost at least $50,000 to sue the state. But there is no doubt that the party would have won the case, because the U.S. Supreme Court already decided in 1986 that parties can invite independents to vote in their primaries if they wish. Therefore, even if the party did need to file a lawsuit, the state would probably have conceded. And if the state didn’t concede, the party would have won the case and then the state would have had to pay the party’s attorney fees.
On September 23, U.S. District Court Judge Leigh Martin May, an Obama appointee, upheld the Georgia petition requirement for U.S. House, for independent candidates and the nominees of parties that didn’t poll as much as 20% for president in the entire U.S., or for Governor of Georgia. Cowen v Raffensperger, n.d., 1:17cv-4660.
The decision is only fifteen pages, and the first nine pages are simply a recitation of the history of the case and a description of the existing law, which is so severe, no minor party candidate has ever used it (since it was created in 1943), and no independent has used it since 1964.
The basis for the decision is simply that the law was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1971 in Jenness v Fortson, and also by the Eleventh Circuit in several cases since. It concludes, “Thus, while Plaintiffs present a robust record and some compelling arguments, the Court cannot ignore the fact that similar challenges to the Georgia Election Code have been rejected by higher courts. The Court is bound by the clear rulings of both the Eleventh Circuit and the Supreme Court.”
The decision does not mention that the U.S. Supreme Court has twice said that laws that are seldom used are probably unconstitutional. The decision also does not mention that two U.S. Supreme Court decisions say states can’t require more signatures for office in just part of the state, than for statewide office. Since 2016, Georgia has only required 7,500 signatures for president, but approximately 20,000 for U.S. House. That characteristic of Georgia law did not exist when those earlier unfavorable precedents were issued.
Dan Walters, a veteran reporter and commentator on California politics, here criticizes AB 1451, which the legislature has passed but which the Governor has not yet acted on. It makes it more difficult to qualify initiatives. Thanks to Scott Lay for the link.
According to this article, San Jose city councilmember Johnny Khamis now supports the Common Sense Party, a new party trying to qualify for the California ballot. San Jose is the largest city in northern California.
Khamis was a registered Republican until 2018, when he switched to being an independent. He is the first person of Arab descent to serve on the San Jose city council.
