California Gubernatorial Poll

On May 28, a Golden State Poll commissioned for the Hoover Institution was released for California’s June gubernatorial primary. The results: incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown 36%, Republican Tim Donnelly 12%, Republican Neel Kashkari 5%, other and undecided 47%. The election is June 3.

Most notably, the poll showed that independent voters prefer Tim Donnelly to Neel Kashkari by a margin of 3:1, whereas Republican only prefer Donnelly to Kashkari by a margin of 2:1. This finding contradicts everything that supporters of the top-two system have been asserting ever since 2009, when the legislature passed the bills putting Proposition 14 on the June 2010 ballot. Elite supporters of Proposition 14 asserted over and over again that closed and semi-closed primaries produce “extremist” candidates, whereas a top-two primary would boost moderates.

This post does not assert either Tim Donnelly or Neel Kashkari is a “moderate” or an “extremist”, but the news media, when discussing the California gubernatorial race, do frequently say that Donnelly is an “extremist” whereas Kashkari is a “moderate.”

Also noteworthy is the fact, utterly ignored by California’s major media, that California’s closed and semi-closed primaries in the last 50 years have produced moderate Republican gubernatorial nominees. Starting with 1962, these moderate nominees have been Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan (who signed a bill making California one of the first states with mostly legal abortion, and who raised taxes), Houston Flournoy, Evelle Younger, George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Meg Whitman. The only Republican gubernatorial nominee who might fairly be described as “extreme” was Bill Simon in 2002. The blanket primary in 1998 also produced a candidate sometimes labeled “extreme”, Dan Lungren.

If anyone can find a link to the May 28 Golden State Poll, please include it in a comment. The source of the information in this blog post is several newspaper articles.

California Bill, Easing Petitions in Lieu of Filing Fee in Special Elections, Passes Assembly

On May 27, the California Assembly passed AB 2233, which makes it easier for candidates to get on the ballot in special elections. The bill reduces the number of signatures in lieu of filing fee, so that the number of signatures is proportionate to the number of days permitted for collecting the signatures. Petitions in lieu of filing fee in regularly-scheduled elections are 3,000 for U.S. House and State Senate, and 1,500 for Assembly. The period for regularly-scheduled elections is 45 days. If the bill is signed into law, if the special election petitioning period were only 9 days (which sometimes happens), the number of signatures for U.S. House and State Senate would be 600, and for Assembly 300.

Georgia Gets Extension of Time to File Brief in Green Party-Constitution Party Presidential Ballot Access Case

Attorneys for the Georgia Secretary of State have received permisison to submit their brief in Green Party of Georgia v Secretary of State on June 10, instead of May 31. This is the case in which the Green Party and the Constitution Party challenge Georgia’s ballot access procedures for presidential candidates. This case was filed in 2012 but it is just now getting started, because initially the U.S. District Court had rejected the case. The Eleventh Circuit reinstated it earlier this year.

Indiana Libertarian Party, and Libertarian National Congressional Committee, File Lawsuit Against Part of McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Law

On May 21, the Indiana Libertarian Party, the Libertarian National Congressional Committee, and an individual donor who wishes to support the Libertarian Party congressional campaign filed a lawsuit to overturn part of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance restrictions on political parties. The case is Rufer v Federal Election Commission, 1:14cv-837. The case was assigned to U.S. District Court Judge Christopher Cooper in the District of Columbia. He has only been a judge for two months.

The lawsuit seeks to overturn the contribution limits for individual donors who wish to support the party’s federal campaign efforts, but only in instances at which the donation would be spent independently of the candidate being supported. The lawsuit is being done for the plaintiffs by the Coolidge-Reagan Foundation. The lawsuit is very similar to a lawsuit filed a few days later by the Republican Party. PAC’s can now received unlimited donations to support federal candidates, if the spending is independent of the candidate. The two lawsuits argue that there is no reason to treat political parties less favorably than PAC’s.