Several minor parties are hoping for unusually high shares of the vote this year, so as to give them ballot status in states where they don’t usually poll enough votes to remain on the ballot.
Libertarians hope to meet goals in the following states in which they usually don’t get enough votes to remain on: (1) Illinois, where 5% of the vote for any statewide race keeps the party automatically on the ballot in 2012 (for statewide office only). Libertarians have only once before met this goal in Illinois, in 1994. (2) Iowa, where 2% for Governor would make the party ballot-qualified for the first time ever; (3) Maryland, where 1% for Governor would keep the party on the ballot; the party has only tried to get 1% for Maryland Governor once before, in 2002, and only got .68%; (4) New Hampshire, where 4% for either Governor or U.S. Senator would make the party ballot-qualified for the first time since 1996; (5) New York, where 50,000 votes for Governor would give the party qualified status for the first time ever; (6) Texas, where 2% for Governor would keep the party on the ballot for the next four years (Libertarians always poll 5% for one of the lesser statewide offices but that only gives ballot status for two more years); only once before, in 1990, has the party polled 2% for Governor of Texas.
Also, the better the party does for Governor of Georgia, the better its chances of gaining ballot status for all U.S. House, state legislative, and county partisan offices. The law requires 20%. Although this is a very difficult requirement, if the party polls 10% for Governor, or even 5% for Governor, its chances of overturning the state’s restrictive definition of “party” would be greatly enhanced, the higher its percentage. The past best showing for Libertarians for Governor of Georgia was in 2006, when Garrett Hayes polled 3.84%.
The Green Party hopes to poll 3% for Governor of Arkansas for the first time, which would maintain its qualified status. The best the party has done for Governor of Arkansas so far was in 2006, when Jim Lendall polled 1.63% in a four-person race. This year Lendall is one of only three candidates on the ballot. The Green Party also hopes to poll 1% for Governor of Maryland; its best past showing was .87% in 2006. And it hopes to poll 50,000 votes for Governor of New York, which it has done only once before in its history, in 1998, when Al Lewis polled 52,533 votes. Of course, the Illinois Green Party hopes to again exceed 5% for Governor of Illinois, in order to keep its full party status.
The Constitution Party is already ballot-qualified in Colorado, but if its gubernatorial nominee, Tom Tancredo, polls 10%, it will be a qualified major party and will have a chance to participate in the random selection process with the Democratic and Republican Parties for the top spot on ballots.
The Moderate Party is hoping to poll 5% for Governor of Rhode Island, so as to keep the party qualified. It has never before run for Governor of Rhode Island.
This post does not mention vote tests in certain other states this year, in which it is normal for the parties to meet the vote test. For example, the Green Party is virtually certain to regain its status as a qualified party in Massachusetts, because it has always polled enough votes to meet the Massachusetts vote test in any election year that has more statewide offices than just President on the ballot. Rather, this post concentrates on vote tests that normally don’t get met, but which may this year.
Nick Youngers, a Libertarian Party activist who now lives in South Korea, has started the “Libertarian Donors Club”, to stimulate donations to Libertarians running in some of the races described above. IndependentPoliticalReport has more information about the club here.