On November 19, the Missouri Secretary of State’s office said that John McCain did carry Missouri in the electoral college. Four counties still haven’t completed their official canvass. But since McCain is ahead by 4,355 votes, and only 3,159 uncounted provisional ballots remain, it is obvious that the Republican electors are elected.
The New York State Board of Elections will release its official canvass of votes on December 4. It is not known when various other states will complete their official canvass (some have already finished), but the December 4 date for New York shows that final totals for president for the entire nation won’t be known until December 4, if then.
Thomas J. Kelly, founder of the British Reformed Sectarian Party of Florida, ran for Florida State House earlier this month, and polled 33.0% of the vote in a two-person race. His only opponent was Republican Dean Cannon. The unofficial vote totals are: Cannon 38,454; Kelly 18,957. The district is centered in Winter Park, near Orlando. See this article (scroll down a bit). According to the article, Cannon spent $500,000 on his re-election campaign.
When this same seat was up in 2004, Cannon had polled 57.1% of the vote against his only opponent, a Democrat.
The British Reformed Sectarian Party was formed to protest a court decision issued in 2003, that upheld the ability of the Florida major parties to require loyalty oaths to run in their primaries. The 11th circuit panel that upheld the oaths consisted of Judges Susan Black, Paul Roney, and Walter Stapleton. Kelly, who had lost the lawsuit, was so irritated with these three judges, he resolved to form a political party and call it the Black, Roney, Stapleton Party. However, he thought better of it, and called it by three words whose first letters match the first initials of the surnames of each of these three judges.
The only other minor party candidate in a 2008 Florida 2-way state legislative race was Constitution Party nominee Louis Tart. Running for the State Senate, 1st district, against a Democrat, Tart polled 18.8%.
The U.S. House has 435 voting members. It seems likely that on November 4, 2008, 30 of them switched from one major party to the other (relative to which party held the seat just before the election).
The 24 districts that definitely switched from “Republican” to “Democratic” are: Alabama 2, Arizona 1, Colorado 4, Connecticut 4, Florida 8, Florida 24, Idaho 1, Illinois 11, Maryland 1, Michigan 7, Michigan 9, Nevada 3, New Jersey 3, New Mexico 1, New Mexico 2, New York 13, New York 25, New York 29, North Carolina 8, Ohio 1, Ohio 16, Pennsylvania 3, Virginia 2, Virginia 11.
The four districts that definitely switched from “Democratic” to “Republican” are: Florida 16, Kansas 2, Louisiana 6, Texas 22.
It is more likely than not that the Democrats also captured two other districts: Ohio 15 and Virginia 5. If so, that would mean 30 seats switched. There is a chance that California’s 4th district also switched from Republican to Democratic.
Two districts in Louisiana haven’t had their general elections yet. The 2nd is considered safe Democratic, but the 4th could be a district that switches from Republican to Democratic.
In approximately half the states, the number of signatures required for a new party, or an independent candidate, depends on how many voters voted in the last election, or on how many people were registered to vote in the last election. In some of the states with the most restrictive requirements, the 2010 or 2012 requirements are substantially higher than they were in 2006 or 2008. This is because, across the nation, turnout and registration were relatively high this season.
California requires a statewide independent candidate to submit a petition of 1% of the number of registered voters at the last election. In 2008 a statewide independent needed 158,372 signatures, but in 2010 such a candidate will need 173,041 signatures. No one has qualified as a statewide independent in California since 1992.
Georgia requires a statewide independent candidate to submit a petition of 1% of the number of registered voters at the last election for which that office was elected. In 2008 an independent presidential candidate needed 42,489 signatures. In 2012 an independent presidential candidate will need 57,582 signatures, unless the law is changed. In 2010, a new party that wishes to run a full slate of candidates for U.S. House will need 287,910 signatures.
Texas requires an independent presidential candidate to collect signatures equal to 1% of the last presidential vote. In 2008 such a candidate needed 74,108 signatures. In 2012 such a candidate will need more than 80,531 signatures (Texas hasn’t finished its official tally yet; the requirement will be somewhat higher than 1% of the unofficial tally).
North Carolina requires a new or previously unqualified party, and a statewide independent, to submit signatures equal to 2% of the last gubernatorial vote. In 2008 the requirement was 69,734. In 2010 and 2012 it will be higher than 85,376.
