For First Time Since 1991, if Not First Time Ever, Registered Republicans are Outnumbered by Independents and Minor Parties

Voter registration data for October 2016 shows that for the first time since 1991, if not the first time ever, there are more voters registered as independents or as members of third parties, than there are registered Republicans. The current data shows:

Democrats: 45,690,825, 40.60%
Republicans: 33,052,332, 29.37%
all others: 33,805,018, 30.04%

BAN has been tracking this data starting in 1992, and never before had the “other” registrants outnumbered either major party.

Many people believe that independents and minor party registrants comprise 40%. The sources of the confusion are polls that say 40% of voters identify as independents. The poll results and the actual registration data have never been closely aligned.


Comments

For First Time Since 1991, if Not First Time Ever, Registered Republicans are Outnumbered by Independents and Minor Parties — 16 Comments

  1. Hmmm. Is even each independents list a PURGE list ???

    I.E. the Donkey/Elephant hacks will say — how come you are NOT registered as a Donkey/Elephant in a Donkey/Elephant regime ???

    NO primaries, NO public party registrations.
    P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.

  2. Does this mean anything when independents and others are allowed to vote in partisan primaries?

  3. Part of this though, is that among the 22 states with no partisan registration, most of them are predominantly Republican states, including most of the Southern states.

  4. @Andy Craig, Good point. Some groups have counted all registered voters in states without partisan registration as “independent”. That is certainly not true regarding their voting behavior, nor their sociopolitical identity. Most registered independents still vote predominately with either Democrats or Republicans. I will believe polls claiming 40% independent when independent or third party candidates receive that portion of the vote.

  5. I did some math:

    Feb 2016 | Oct 2016 | Growth | Growth
    41,341,965 | 45,690,825 | 4,348,860 | 10.52%
    30,447,217 | 33,052,332 | 2,605,115 | 8.56%
    29,619,218 | 33,805,018 | 4,185,800 | 14.13%

    Independents grew in raw numbers by nearly as much as the Democrats. I assume the magnitude of growth is because many voters did not bother to register since 2012.

  6. The same for the minor parties, with the numbers from a few posts back:

    Party | Feb 2016 | Oct 2016 | Growth | Growth
    Libertarian | 411,250 | 499,492 | 88,242 | 21.46%
    Green | 242,023 | 256,560 | 14,537 | 6.01%
    Constitution | 77,916 | 92,483 | 14,567 | 18.70%
    Working Families | 55,690 | 61,517 | 5827 | 10.46%

  7. Rosario v Rockefeller Circa 1973 does not bar the states from allowing non affiliated voters to vote in all closed primary elections as an advisory fusion vote for each of the major top two ballot access parties

  8. “Some of that is a consequence of distribution.”

    Some, but not, e.g., Governors and US Senate.

  9. Some states, like West Virginia, have semi-open primaries where independents actually have more choice. Registered Republicans and Democrats may only vote in their own primaries, but independents and non-qualified minor party voters can opt for either ballot by simply requesting that choice of ballot at the polling place. Thus, unless someone is interested in running for office or being active in one of the establishment parties here, there is absolutely no reason to register with them. An added bonus is it keeps you off their abysmal fund-raising lists. IMO, they are both shooting themselves in the foot with this primary arrangement and the only thing that would make me any happier would be for them to abolish it completely – unless they pay for it themselves.

  10. How does this include numbers in states which don’t have partisan registration at all, like Virginia? And how do these states stand in terms of leaning Democrat or Republican? If most states without partisan registration lean to the same party, that could skew the numbers.

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