CALIFORNIA TOP-TWO SYSTEM MAY DISTORT 2026 GUBERNATORIAL RACE
Since 2011, California has had a top-two system in which all candidates for partisan state office and Congress run on a single primary ballot. Then only the top two candidates run in November. There is no write-in space on the ballot in November for top-two offices.
Eight Democrats with significant campaign resources have announced for the June 2026 primary for Governor, and only two Republicans with significant campaigns are running. This opens the possibility that the two Republicans might place first and second in the primary, because the majority party, the Democratic Party, has so many candidates.
Four polls taken at the end of October have showed one or the other of the two Republicans in the lead. The Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host Steve Hilton.
The eight Democrats, in the order in which they filed, are Tony Thurmond (Superintendent of Public Instruction), Betty Yee (former Controller), Antonio Villaraigosa (former Los Angeles Mayor), Stephen Cloobeck (billionaire businessman), Katie Porter (former U.S. House member), Xavier Becerra (former Attorney General), Tom Steyer (billionaire businessman), and Eric Swalwell (U.S. House member).
Here are the recent polls:
EMC Research shows Hilton leading with 20%, followed by Porter at 16% and Bianco at 16%.
Ben Tulchin Polls shows Bianco at 20% followed by Villaraigosa at 19% and Hilton at 18%.
Emerson College Polls shows Hilton at 16%, Porter at 15%, and Biancho at 11%.
UC IGS Polls shows Bianco at 13%, Porter at 11%, Hilton at 8%, and Becerra at 8%.
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